The average nominal GDP growth projected by the nine states for FY24 is 14%, well above the 10.5% nominal growth for the country projected in the Union budget as well as the average of 11.1% for all the 17 states analysed.
Some experts are circumspect about these growth projections, given that the country’s overall growth is expected to slow down from 15.9% estimated for this fiscal as per the budget for FY24.
Uttar Pradesh expects to be the top performer in the coming year, having projected a 19.1% increase in nominal GDP, up from 6.9% growth in FY23, as per data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
Assam expects the economy to grow by 15% in the coming fiscal while Tamil Nadu has projected a 14% increase in growth for the coming year, similar to what it expects to achieve in 2022-23. Punjab expects a slight uptick in growth in the coming year while Jharkhand expects to maintain its growth momentum.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects the country’s real GDP growth, which accounts for inflation, to be 6.4% in FY24. Inflation is expected to be 5.3% for FY24, yielding a nominal growth of about 11.7%.
BUCKING THE TRENDThe Centre’s projections align with the country’s compound annual growth rate between FY19 and FY23 of 10.6%. But the states with a positive outlook expect to outperform the country as a whole and improve their own performance.
Uttar Pradesh’s nominal GDP grew only 6.4% annually between FY20 and FY23 while Punjab registered a 5.9% growth, and Jharkhand recorded a 7.1% annual rise. “Some states can grow faster, as there may be some big project being implemented at state level,” said NR Bhanumurthy, vice-chancellor of Dr BR Ambedkar School of Economics University, Bengaluru.
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