CPI services, services ex-energy, core services ex-shelter, vs. core and core commodities.
Figure 1: Core CPI inflation rate (blue), core goods (red), services (tan), services ex-energy (green), core services ex-shelter (pink), all s.a., q/q at annual rates. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via FRED, Pawel Skrzypczynski, NBER, and author’s calculations.
To me, q/q inflation rates are generally declining, while core goods are experiencing deflation.
Addendum:
Here are year-on-year rates:
Figure 2: Core CPI inflation rate (blue), core goods (red), services (tan), services ex-energy (green), core services ex-shelter (pink), all s.a., year-on-year. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via FRED, Pawel Skrzypczynski, NBER, and author’s calculations.
